Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

Category: Polls (Page 1 of 2)

Sanders’ Last Stand: The State of the Democratic Primary

In the mix with all the other craziness that is going on, we still have a presidential primary ongoing—Bernie Sanders has clearly opted not to drop out, given that he participated in an online campaign event on March 22, and his campaign has expressed interest in participating in an April debate.

Thus, the beat goes on. But the average person probably isn’t aware of what’s been playing out with the primary, due to the COVID-19 crisis.

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2020 Democratic Primary: A Tale of 5 Candidates. But Only 2 Matter. Probably.

You could be forgiven if you have been vaguely keeping one eye on news coverage of the Democratic primary, and more or less understood there to be around 5 to 8 major candidates that are seriously in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg have all generated a lot of headlines, while several others such as Andrew Yang, Corey Booker, and Tulsi Gabbard have also amassed fervent fan bases.

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What Does the Democratic Primary Look Like as a 4-Way Race?

The Democratic primary preseason is progressing more rapidly than most casual observers realize. As of this writing, we’re not that far off from the tipping point where the days left before the Iowa caucus (142 days away) equals the duration of the actual primaries (125 days from the Iowa caucus on February 3rd to the Virgin Islands caucus on June 6th). We’re at the point where a lot of things are going to start happening very, very quickly.

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2020 US Senate Election Candidates, Info, Polling & Projections

Updated August 11, 2020: Slowly getting caught up on polling, fundraising, and primaries from the last couple months.
Previously Updated June 9, 2020: Updated Georgia and West Virginia writeups to reflect results of June 9th primaries

On November 3, 2020, much more will be decided than whether Donald Trump secures a second term as president. Control of the Senate will also be at stake, with 35 seats up for grabs. This article attempts to identify which Senate seats are flippable, and which are not (regardless of how many tens of millions of dollars are thrown at them).

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Buttigieg’s Campaign is Doing Worse Than His Fundraising & National Polls Suggest

Pete Buttigieg has been a captivating candidate for many. I had been impressed with him early on, and thought that he gave a top-3 performance during the first debate. His fundraising also signals that he has incredible potential as a candidate. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Buttigieg raised more money than any other candidate between March 1st and June 30th of 2019, surpassing even frontrunners Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

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The Candidacy of Beto O’Rourke is Pretty Much Dead

I’ve been tracking the polling for top candidates in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary since around early March. Early on, for the sake of simplicity and time, I decided that I wouldn’t bother tracking candidates that were bottom of the bucket type candidates, especially since there are so. Damn. Many. Of them. Besides, it’s not terribly scintillating to watch slight tenth of a point twitches in polling for candidates that are a rounding error above zero.

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