Nesler.org

Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

Month: August 2019

How My Half-Baked 2020 Senate Election Deviation (SED) Analysis Works

A couple weeks ago I started writing about an analysis I put together of the 2020 Senate races, based upon an examination of PVI and generic congressional ballot polling. I got a thousand or so words in before I realized that what I really had was a standalone article explaining the consequences of over-investing in sexy but unwinnable races, while ignoring genuinely winnable races. That article also explains what the hell PVI and generic ballot polling are, so if you haven’t already, please read that first.

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PVI, the Generic Ballot, and the Importance of Prioritizing Winnable Elections

I tear my hair out every time I see a Democratic primary poll where candidates who could potentially be competitive in Senate races in really difficult states—like Steve Bullock could be in Montana—continue to rack up 0% to 3% support. (O’Rourke, you blew it, we don’t speak your name in this household anymore.) Why? Because control of the Senate matters. A lot.

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