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Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

An Optimist’s View of Election Night

If you pay attention to pretty much anyone who delves into the details of politics and elections for a living, you’ll find that they are terrified of how election night in November will play out.

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Sanders’ Last Stand: The State of the Democratic Primary

In the mix with all the other craziness that is going on, we still have a presidential primary ongoing—Bernie Sanders has clearly opted not to drop out, given that he participated in an online campaign event on March 22, and his campaign has expressed interest in participating in an April debate.

Thus, the beat goes on. But the average person probably isn’t aware of what’s been playing out with the primary, due to the COVID-19 crisis.

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The Democratic Primary Schedule Post-COVID-19

To say that the outbreak of COVID-19 has been a source of global disruption would be a gross understatement.

Here in the United States, the disease has introduced added complexity to an already complex and time-sensitive process: the 2020 Democratic Primary. Many primaries have been delayed by weeks or months, and more changes—such as delaying New York’s primary to June—are likely in the cards.

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2020 Democratic Primary: A Tale of 5 Candidates. But Only 2 Matter. Probably.

You could be forgiven if you have been vaguely keeping one eye on news coverage of the Democratic primary, and more or less understood there to be around 5 to 8 major candidates that are seriously in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg have all generated a lot of headlines, while several others such as Andrew Yang, Corey Booker, and Tulsi Gabbard have also amassed fervent fan bases.

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“Sedition, A Free Press, and Personal Rule” – Theodore Roosevelt

Theodore Roosevelt was never a particularly restful soul. After he left the presidency, and then failed to reattain the White House running as a member of the self-created Progressive Party in 1912, Teddy wished to remain an active voice in politics. Between September 1917 and his death in 1919, Roosevelt penned a column which regularly appeared in The Kansas City Star, a newspaper which is still in circulation today.

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What Does the Democratic Primary Look Like as a 4-Way Race?

The Democratic primary preseason is progressing more rapidly than most casual observers realize. As of this writing, we’re not that far off from the tipping point where the days left before the Iowa caucus (142 days away) equals the duration of the actual primaries (125 days from the Iowa caucus on February 3rd to the Virgin Islands caucus on June 6th). We’re at the point where a lot of things are going to start happening very, very quickly.

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2020 US Senate Election Candidates, Info, Polling & Projections

Updated August 11, 2020: Slowly getting caught up on polling, fundraising, and primaries from the last couple months.
Previously Updated June 9, 2020: Updated Georgia and West Virginia writeups to reflect results of June 9th primaries

On November 3, 2020, much more will be decided than whether Donald Trump secures a second term as president. Control of the Senate will also be at stake, with 35 seats up for grabs. This article attempts to identify which Senate seats are flippable, and which are not (regardless of how many tens of millions of dollars are thrown at them).

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A Look at the Presidential Primary Candidates’ Support as 2nd Choices

For the last several months, global survey research firm Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic presidential primary. Every week, the site is updated with the results of the previous week’s survey of nearly 17,000 registered voters throughout the United States.

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How My Half-Baked 2020 Senate Election Deviation (SED) Analysis Works

A couple weeks ago I started writing about an analysis I put together of the 2020 Senate races, based upon an examination of PVI and generic congressional ballot polling. I got a thousand or so words in before I realized that what I really had was a standalone article explaining the consequences of over-investing in sexy but unwinnable races, while ignoring genuinely winnable races. That article also explains what the hell PVI and generic ballot polling are, so if you haven’t already, please read that first.

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PVI, the Generic Ballot, and the Importance of Prioritizing Winnable Elections

I tear my hair out every time I see a Democratic primary poll where candidates who could potentially be competitive in Senate races in really difficult states—like Steve Bullock could be in Montana—continue to rack up 0% to 3% support. (O’Rourke, you blew it, we don’t speak your name in this household anymore.) Why? Because control of the Senate matters. A lot.

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