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Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

Category: Presidential Primaries (page 1 of 2)

Sanders’ Last Stand: The State of the Democratic Primary

In the mix with all the other craziness that is going on, we still have a presidential primary ongoing—Bernie Sanders has clearly opted not to drop out, given that he participated in an online campaign event on March 22, and his campaign has expressed interest in participating in an April debate.

Thus, the beat goes on. But the average person probably isn’t aware of what’s been playing out with the primary, due to the COVID-19 crisis.

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The Democratic Primary Schedule Post-COVID-19

To say that the outbreak of COVID-19 has been a source of global disruption would be a gross understatement.

Here in the United States, the disease has introduced added complexity to an already complex and time-sensitive process: the 2020 Democratic Primary. Many primaries have been delayed by weeks or months, and more changes—such as delaying New York’s primary to June—are likely in the cards.

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2020 Democratic Primary: A Tale of 5 Candidates. But Only 2 Matter. Probably.

You could be forgiven if you have been vaguely keeping one eye on news coverage of the Democratic primary, and more or less understood there to be around 5 to 8 major candidates that are seriously in the hunt for the Democratic nomination. Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg have all generated a lot of headlines, while several others such as Andrew Yang, Corey Booker, and Tulsi Gabbard have also amassed fervent fan bases.

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What Does the Democratic Primary Look Like as a 4-Way Race?

The Democratic primary preseason is progressing more rapidly than most casual observers realize. As of this writing, we’re not that far off from the tipping point where the days left before the Iowa caucus (142 days away) equals the duration of the actual primaries (125 days from the Iowa caucus on February 3rd to the Virgin Islands caucus on June 6th). We’re at the point where a lot of things are going to start happening very, very quickly.

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A Look at the Presidential Primary Candidates’ Support as 2nd Choices

For the last several months, global survey research firm Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic presidential primary. Every week, the site is updated with the results of the previous week’s survey of nearly 17,000 registered voters throughout the United States.

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Buttigieg’s Campaign is Doing Worse Than His Fundraising & National Polls Suggest

Pete Buttigieg has been a captivating candidate for many. I had been impressed with him early on, and thought that he gave a top-3 performance during the first debate. His fundraising also signals that he has incredible potential as a candidate. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Buttigieg raised more money than any other candidate between March 1st and June 30th of 2019, surpassing even frontrunners Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren.

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The Candidacy of Beto O’Rourke is Pretty Much Dead

I’ve been tracking the polling for top candidates in the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary since around early March. Early on, for the sake of simplicity and time, I decided that I wouldn’t bother tracking candidates that were bottom of the bucket type candidates, especially since there are so. Damn. Many. Of them. Besides, it’s not terribly scintillating to watch slight tenth of a point twitches in polling for candidates that are a rounding error above zero.

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2020 Democrats are Consolidating Support Far More Rapidly Than Republicans in 2016

Even though we’re more than 8 months out from the start of the Democratic Primary, the inevitable circus of a presidential primary is already well under way. So much so that one of the key challenges facing Democrats is whittling the Costco-sized bulk pack of 24 candidates already in the running down to a more manageable (and comprehensible) number.

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State of the Democratic Primary – May 21, 2019

I’ve been maintaining a spreadsheet generating a graph from a running average of the Democratic primary candidates since March. This is the first time I’ll be rolling this out in any detail, so I want to take a step back first and explain my rationale for my approach.

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The Iowa Caucus & New Hampshire Primary Predict the Winning Presidential Candidate

Alternate title: Why Do We Give a S*** About Two States With Populations Comparable to Dallas and Chicago?

It’s very easy to look at the countless would-be presidential candidates crisscrossing Iowa and New Hampshire a year, 18 months, or even 2 years before the presidential election, and think that (a) they clearly need to find a hobby, and (b) that the journalists and media personalities covering these antics are desperate to have something to talk about.

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