Nesler.org

Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

Month: May 2019

2020 Democrats are Consolidating Support Far More Rapidly Than Republicans in 2016

Even though we’re more than 8 months out from the start of the Democratic Primary, the inevitable circus of a presidential primary is already well under way. So much so that one of the key challenges facing Democrats is whittling the Costco-sized bulk pack of 24 candidates already in the running down to a more manageable (and comprehensible) number.

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State of the Democratic Primary – May 21, 2019

I’ve been maintaining a spreadsheet generating a graph from a running average of the Democratic primary candidates since March. This is the first time I’ll be rolling this out in any detail, so I want to take a step back first and explain my rationale for my approach.

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Early Head-to-Head Polls Don’t Mean Much – But Trump’s Are Notably Horrible

A poll released by Fox News in May 2019 pitting Trump against top Democratic candidates—Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg—made a number of journalists, commentators, and armchair analysts raise their eyebrows a bit.

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