Nesler.org

Politics, Etc. by John Nesler

Month: March 2019

Presidential Primaries – Accounting for Name Recognition

I was doing a bit of research, and I came across a bit of interesting analysis that Nate Silver did a few years ago.

In looking at very early primary polling (polls conducted the year prior to primaries, like where we’re at now), he attempted to compensate for name recognition among candidates by taking their polling and dividing it by their name recognition.

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The Predictive Value of Polling Prior to the Presidential Primaries

Over the last few election cycles, polling companies have run polls years very, very early. Not just months, but years before the Democratic and Republican primaries. It’s pretty easy to look at this and wonder… why? After all, very early polls often cover people who never even end up running. What was the point of NPR running a head-to-head poll between Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey of all people, back in January 2018?

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